A Satoshi Institute research & analytics platform
Bitcoin decisions, backed by data.
BTC Tools combines calculators, historical data, valuation models, treasury analysis, and risk tools to help individuals, executives, and boards make better Bitcoin decisions. Pick the door that fits the decision you're making.
Individual allocator
Hold Bitcoin
Decisions about your own stack — when to buy, where the cycle sits, when it's enough.
Start here
DCA backtester
What $100/week into Bitcoin vs. the S&P since 2018 actually did.
Bitcoin vs. Everything95% range
Compare BTC against gold, indices and top tech stocks
Cycle suite
Mayer Multiple, MVRV, Pi Cycle, realized price
Price prediction
Technical, sentiment and macro inputs to a price range
FIRE calculator
When Bitcoin gets you to independence
Power-law corridor95% range
Fair value, ±σ bands, any date
Quantum exposure
Is your Bitcoin key-exposed?
Treasury & board
Put it on the balance sheet
Whether a corporate treasury should hold Bitcoin — and what it does to the business if it does.
Start here
Balance-sheet impact model
What a Bitcoin allocation does to reported earnings and earnings volatility.
Allocation model95% range
Size an allocation against risk tolerance
Drawdown survival95% range
Holding through a 70% drawdown
mNAV stress test
Premium-to-NAV reflexivity
Treasury comparison
MSTR, Metaplanet & more, side by side
Treasury quantum exposure
Per-company exposure by ticker
Quantum exposure
Is the treasury's BTC key-exposed?
Security & board
Secure it against Q-Day
Whether your cryptography — and the data behind it — survives the move to quantum.
Guides
Plain-language answers
On Bitcoin treasury reflexivity, governance, and quantum risk.
What is mNAV reflexivity?
Why a stock premium above NAV becomes a self-sustaining engine — and what kills it.
Is MSTR overvalued?
Why standard DCF doesn't price Strategy, and the only condition that keeps the loop running.
What is BTC Yield?
A non-GAAP per-share accretion metric — and the reversion risk a high yield embeds.
How much BTC is quantum exposed?
The share of supply sitting in key-revealed outputs, and what that means for Q-Day.
What drives the Bitcoin price?
Cycles, valuation models and key price drivers tied to the cycle-position and Bitcoin vs. Everything tools.
Can you predict the Bitcoin price?
Technical indicators, sentiment gauges, and macro filters answer “where are we?” — not “what comes next?”.